On the Doha Dud and Tar Sands Treaty

I've been hesitating on this one--- I drank too much Hatorade. And even before that, the subject was depressing.

The 18th United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP18) came together in Doha, Qatar to negotiate the future of international climate negotiations (as ironic as that is). Who are the Parties and why aren't they partying? They are the countries that form the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and they're not partying because they're too busy wallowing in the frustrations of international diplomacy.


Witness:

In 2010, the Parties agreed that emissions need to be reduced such that temperatures didn't rise more than 2 degrees Celsius ---- because, you know, most of the world agrees that the climate is changing  and that it's linked to greenhouse gas emissions (in large part from industry; including industrial cow farts).

Because if they don't change now, carbon-independence will be even harder to accomplish and problems will compound upon themselves as the "carbon-sinks" such as corals, algae and trees die, the permafrost melts to expose methane-bogged peat bogs, smaller glaciers reflect smaller amounts of solar radiation, etc. etc.

The way things stand, as was abundantly clear at Doha, there is no way that "government" is going to take drastic enough measures to accomplish this objective. Seems like the only thing these conferences are good for is making small-island diplomats cry and giving a platform for Canadian Ministers of the Environment to lie through their teeth.

According to the Climate Change Performance Index 2013 :

Not one of the examined countries has managed to change to a development path that is compatible with limiting global warming substantially below 2 degree C. No country's effort is deemed sufficient to prevent dangerous climate change.

The small yet comprehensive CCPI report, produced annually by Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe since 2005, ranks Denmark as the best performing country based on the weighing of emissions level (30%), emissions development (30%), renewable energy (10%), efficiency (10%) and policy (10%). But, again, it has found that no country does nearly enough--- so how can we reasonably expect them to do so collectively?

The Parties passed a "Doha Climate Gateway" to next year's COP 19, which could lead to an extension of the Kyoto Protocol (KP2?) --- the only ratified and thereby legally binding international climate negotiation on the book, which pledges to reduce GHG emissions below 1990 levels by 20XX.

But even that is: yep, not gonna cut it.

The USA, China, India -- and as of 2011, Canada --  are all not legally bound to the Kyoto Protocol. The data in the CCPI 2013 report suggests that these four countries are responsible for more than 44% of global CO2 emissions. Their carbon leadership probably won't change considering:

•  So many politicians and good-common-folk in the USA are so scared of the UN imposing on their sovereignty-- having never bothered to consider reading the UN Charter-- that the federal government can't possibly ratify UN proposals, even when they are founded squarely upon American policy and principle. And let's not forget the Heritage Foundation backed mindset that "the only consensus on climate change is that there is no consensus". 

• Canada has a legacy of obstructing climate negotiation. Canada's government is incredibly influenced by the fossil fuel industry. The tar sands extraction and refining in Alberta is claimed to be the largest industrial project in human history, with an equally larger-than-acknowledged carbon footprint, and they hope to triple in scale by 2030 to 6 million barrels per day.  To support tar sands development is to support continued reliance on fossil fuels, continued pillage of indigenous peoples' lands, and subsequent rapid climate change and biodiversity decline: 

James Hansen, head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, described it as "game over for the climate". And as the Canadian Youth Delegation puts it, Canada has Commitment Issues: Tar sands extraction invalidates Canada’s obligations to the UNFCCC and undermines global climate change negotiations. 

• Finally, India and China aren't going to budge until the USA and Canada do. Especially China, which has state-owned enterprises heavily invested in Canada's tar sands operations.

All of this is to say, the politics and the anything-but-laissez-faire energy market are far from protecting the planet, or the vast majority of its over-7-billion people. Extending the Kyoto Protocol won't accomplish much at all to reduce GHGs, because the biggest players aren't involved. And as for guaranteeing funds for the $100 billion per year Green Climate Fund to help those most affected... good luck, delegates.

As the talking heads talked in Doha, 92 died and 80,000 people lost their homes in the Philippines from Typhoon Bopha. I think the status-quo calls for revolution. TRUE "change"-- and I don't mean from a centralized global governing body. While climate science and politics continues to be scandalized, our environment is being under-valued and our mega-markets are market-failing on us. My question to the investors, the decision makers, the listened-to's among us is: How are you going to enjoy your resort  holidays-- your retirement-- if the ocean's beaches and high tides are all littered with petro-plastics and the coral reefs are all dying and dissolving by mid-century? Or if even you are too busy running from disaster or starvation? You're not. We're not.

I will not live my life in fear-mongering and depression, but I will neither deny this real possibility and condone a  tar sands economy at the direct cost of more peaceful and closed-loop economic innovation.