This month's democratic referendum for the independence of south Sudan is being heralded by beloved George Clooney and former UN Secretary General Kofi Anan as a great victory for democracy. A whopping 99% of voters are pro-independence, and if all goes according to plan, South Sudan will declare independence on July 9th.
While this may be viewed as cause for celebration and hope for the people of post-colonial Africa, I can't help but wonder:
- Will the split end the tension between the primarily Muslim north and primarily Christian south, or could it exacerbate it?
- The South will inherit 3/4 of the country's oil reserves, but the pipeline still goes through the North. Is this going to sink the North's economy or lead to conflict over resource rights?
- The region of Darfur has been in violent conflict for eight years, and will remain a part the North. How will the referendum impact the continued violence in Darfur? Will the South become a harbor for rebel leaders or refugees? Will the North shut out international aid and peacekeepers? Will the situation get better or worse for Darfur?
These are hard questions, and probably hard times for the North. The separation of the country along religious lines might lead to greater stability, but for now we'll have to take it in a leap of faith.
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